Conjoint analysis for environmental evaluation

BACKGROUND, AIM AND SCOPE: Conjoint analysis and the related choice-modelling methods have been used for many years in marketing research to evaluate consumer behaviour and preferences for different kinds of product attributes. Recently, the number of applications in environmental science and management has started to grow. Conjoint analysis is found in many different forms, and the environmental studies evaluated in this review display the same range of methods as in other fields. The key characteristic of all these methods is that trade-offs are evaluated by jointly considering a number of important attributes. MAIN FEATURES: This paper is a review of the literature on environmental applications of conjoint analysis and assesses in which environmental area conjoint analysis has been most successful. The method and the design of the studies are reviewed as well. RESULTS: A total of 84 studies were found, dealing with environmental issues that were evaluated by conjoint analysis. The studies concern agriculture, ecosystem management, energy, environmental evaluation, forestry, land management, pollution, products, recreation, environmental risk analysis and waste management. DISCUSSION: Choice experiments seem to have a comparatively stronger position in environmental studies than elsewhere. Most of the environmental applications are related to natural resource management. This is somewhat surprising, but a number of reports have appeared also on product evaluation, which could be a key application area in the future. CONCLUSIONS: Compared to marketing and transportation, the number of environmental conjoint studies is rather small but increasing, and the method has proven to work effectively in eliciting preferences on environmental issues. In environmental issues, experimenters often use choice experiments, especially concerning ecosystem management and environmental evaluations. When it comes to evaluating preferences concerning agriculture, forestry, energy and products, a more traditional approach of conjoint analysis is favoured. RECOMMENDATIONS AND PERSPECTIVES: Two new areas of application are identified in this review--environmental communication and expert elicitation. Conjoint analysis can thus be developed into a useful instrument for environmental risk analysis and communication, both of which are necessary for an efficient approach to risk governance.     

U and Th in some brown coals of Serbia and Montenegro and their environmental impact

GOAL, SCOPE AND BACKGROUND: The objective of this paper is to determine and compare the concentrations of U and Th in soft to hard brown (lignite to sub-bituminous) coals of Serbia and Montenegro. It also presents comparison of the obtained data on U and Th concentrations with the published data on coals located in some other countries of the world. Almost the whole coal production of Serbia and Montenegro is used as feed coals for combustion in thermal power plants. METHODS: Channel samples from open pit and underground mines and core samples were collected for hard and soft brown coals. For the analysis the samples were decomposed using microwave technique. Obtained solutions containing U and Th were analyzed by inductively coupled plasma mass spectroscopy (ICP-MS) using NIST standards. RESULTS: Concentration of U from the investigated basins and the corresponding mine fields ranges within 0.60-70.10 mg/kg, 0.65-3.20 mg/kg, 0.95-6.59 mg/kg, 1.20-6.05 mg/kg, 0.80-6.66 mg/kg, 0.18-89.90 mg/kg, 0.19-4.14 mg/kg, and 0.28-3.52 mg/kg for the Kostolac, Kolubara, Krepoljin, Sjenica, Soko Banja, Bogovina East field, Senje-Resavica and Pljevlja basins, respectively. Concentration of Th ranges within 0.20-2.60 mg/kg, 0.84-6.57 mg/kg, 1.48-6.48 mg/kg, 0.12-2.71 mg/kg, 0.13-4.95 mg/kg, 0.14-3.48 mg/kg, 0.29-3.56 mg/kg, and 0.17-1.89 mg/kg for the Kostolac, Kolubara, Krepoljin, Sjenica, Soko Banja, Bogovina East field, Senje-Resavica and Pljevlja basins, respectively. DISCUSSION: Brown coal from Senje-Resavica, Kolubara, Kostolac and Pljevlja is characterized by low U concentration. Coals form the Krepoljin, Soko Banja and Sjenica basins have slightly higher U concentrations than the mentioned group. The highest concentration of U is characteristic for the coal from the Bogovina East field. Concentration of Th in coals from Serbia and Montenegro has proved to be low. Out of all investigated coal basins, only the coal from the Krepoljin and Kolubara basins has high concentration of Th. The hydrothermally altered rocks of the Timok dacite-andesite complex, representing the basement of the Bogovina basin, could be a potential source of U, especially at the bottom part of the Lower seam of the Bogovina East field. CONCLUSIONS: This study shows that brown coals in Serbia and Montenegro (soft to hard brown coals or lignite to sub-bituminous) contain low levels of U (5.30 mg/kg, average value and 2.10 mg/kg geometric mean value) and Th (1.80 mg/kg, average value and 1.12 mg/kg geometric mean value). There are some obvious differences in concentration of U and Th in coals from different basins in Serbia and Montenegro. The approximate value for U and Th release mainly from power plants was 644.33 t and 983.46 t, respectively within the period 1965-2000 for the studied mines in Serbia, and 23.76 t and 15.05 t for the Potrlica mine (Montenegro) within the period 1965-1997. RECOMMENDATIONS: The coals in Serbia and Montenegro show no identifiable unfavourable impact on the surrounding environment, due to low natural radioactive concentration of U and Th, but further investigations concerning human health should be performed. PERSPECTIVES: Preliminary research revealed that in some Serbian coals (and, particularly, parts of the coal seam) U and Th content are rather high. Such coals should be carefully studied, as well as U and Th concentrations in ash, fly ash, waste disposals, nearby soil and ground water. Further studies should include determination of the radioactivity of all these products, and estimation of possible health impact.     

爆炸事故过程分析中不确定性问题处理方法

针对事故过程分析中的不确定性问题,指出了不确定问题在危险分析中的重要性及处理该问题的复杂性和难点,列出了几种基于非线性数学方法处理不确定问题的基本方法,如微分法、MonteCarlo模拟、Fourier方法、响应表面法等,并对之进行了比较.建议在处理事故过程的不确定性时采用Monte Carlo模拟.     

青岛工业与资源灰色关联分析

本文应用灰色关联分析方法研究了青岛地区主导工业对资源的依赖状态及不同工业行业之产出对各类资源投入的反应程度,以灰关联树反映工业经济与资源复合系统之整体及不同层次子系统的耦合关系,定量揭示工业经济效益主导变量与各类资源变量的动态联系,从资源高效利用的角度探讨了青岛工业产业结构调整和优化的方向及区域经济与环境效益相协调的可能途径。     

人口流动规律及其政策含义

人口流动是人力资源配轩优化的根本创新路径,人口流动的一般规律是:如果流动人口为理性行为选择者,在社会制度安排许可的发展环境下,当不同区域和不同产业间形成比较收益差异,存在着流动收益大于流动成本的潜在和现实的各种获利机会时,就必定驱使人们由低收益领域向高必益领域流动,而且比较收益差异量与流动人口的流速、流量正相关,并必然导致产生收益率及人口分布走向平均化的趋势,社会发展也将获得最优化的人力资源配置结果.其相关政策含义:一是人口流动是流动人口的理性选择;二是切实保障公民的自由流动权利;三是利用比较利益差别促进人口流动;四是降低各种不必要的流动成本和流动风险;五是建构人口流动的有效率社会发展框架.     

构建人类命运共同体、应对气候变化与生态文明建设

全球气候变化给人类社会文明带来严峻挑战,需要人类社会采取共同措施和行动积极应对。应对全球气候变化是当今世界最能体现人类共同命运的领域,深度参与并积极推动全球气候治理体系改革和建设是中国推动构建人类命运共同体的重要实践,也是生态文明理论和实践的重要方面。应对气候变化是我国生态文明建设的重要内容和内在要求;以共同价值理念构建人类命运共同体,凝聚各国力量携手合作应对全球气候变化,是全球生态文明建设和构建人类命运共同体的具体实践,也为应对全球气候变化提供了良好载体和国际平台。文章通过分析可知,应对气候变化、生态文明建设与构建人类命运共同体三者之间,呈现出相互促进、和谐共生的"三位一体"特征;人与自然共生的生命共同体是前提条件,人类的任何实践活动都要以自然生态系统为基础和前提;人类命运共同体在整合各国力量方面,为生态文明建设提供了社会基础;生态文明包容各国文明,凝聚价值共识,成为生命共同体和人类命运共同体的价值导向。中国倡导人类命运共同体理念,是全球生态文明和人类命运共同体的积极倡导者、推动者和践行者,既为应对全球气候变化提供了价值基础,也提供了强有力的实践支撑;应对气候变化是全球生态文明建设和人类命运共同体构建的生动实践。因此,加强生态文明建设和构建人类命运共同体,为全球应对气候变化提供了理论基础和国际平台,也将为全球可持续发展贡献中国智慧和中国案例。     

基于OMI数据的东南沿海大气臭氧浓度时空分布特征研究

基于臭氧监测仪(OMI)卫星反演数据,对2005—2018年东南沿海5省区域大气臭氧柱浓度数据进行提取及分析,探讨其时空分布格局及影响因素.结果表明:①在时间变化上,14年间,该区域大气臭氧柱浓度整体呈先上升后下降的趋势,2005—2013年臭氧柱浓度持续升高,最高值为324.52 DU,高值区不断向南部区域扩大;2013—2018年臭氧柱浓度呈下降趋势,最低值为228.27 DU,但在2017、2018年略有上升.②在空间分布上,臭氧柱浓度自北向南逐渐降低,高值区集中分布在江苏及浙江省北部;低值区集中于福建省南部及广东省大部分地区.③在季节变化上,大体呈现出春夏季高于秋冬季,高值区在春夏季交替出现,秋季略高于冬季,但差异不明显.④稳定性分析表明:研究区臭氧柱浓度整体呈现中部分散、南北部集聚、差异较显著的分布格局.⑤自然因素中,风向、气温均呈现显著正相关,江淮地区的梅雨季节(降水)及华南地区的台风和暴雨也起到显著作用.⑥人文因素中,臭氧柱浓度与地区生产总值、各产业生产总值及机动车保有量均表现出正相关,其中,臭氧柱浓度与第二产业的相关度最高.另外,臭氧柱浓度与NO_x排放量表现出显著相关性.VOC_s对臭氧柱浓度的影响中,工业源是主控因素,交通源和居民源次之,电厂源对臭氧柱浓度的影响最弱.这进一步说明臭氧浓度的变化受到了诸多因素的综合影响,但气温、NO_x及VOC_s的排放是臭氧浓度变化的主导因素.     

铅锌矿区玉米中重金属污染特征及健康风险评价

以西南某铅锌矿区为研究区域,测定了92份玉米样品中Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr和Ni的含量,开展了矿区玉米籽粒中重金属污染特征及健康风险研究.应用单因子污染指数和内梅罗综合污染指数分析了重金属在玉米中的污染状况,采用健康风险评价模型评价了重金属对人体健康造成的风险,同时利用主成分分析法解析了重金属的主要来源.结果表明,玉米籽粒中Pb、Zn、Cd、Cr和Ni的平均含量分别为0.30、23.75、0.21、1.33和1.15 mg ·kg^-1;除重金属Zn外,其他4种重金属均超过我国食品卫生标准限值,研究区玉米籽粒中Pb、Cd、Cr和Ni的综合污染指数范围介于4.32~9.07之间,均属于重度污染,Zn的综合污染指数小于1;重金属通过玉米籽粒摄入引起的复合重金属污染对成人和儿童均存在健康风险,且对儿童造成的健康风险高于成人.玉米籽粒中5种重金属可以由2个主成分来反映,第一主成分主要支配Pb、Cd、Cr和Ni的来源,第二主成分支配Zn的来源.玉米籽粒重金属含量与土壤重金属含量之间没有明显相关性.     

不同来源土样胶体对氯霉素吸附行为的影响

选取不同来源沉积物或土壤样品（沉积物A1和A2,天然土壤B1和B2,市售营养土B3）,采用切向超滤与多种纳米分析技术相结合的方法,分析了不同土样中胶体的理化特征及其对氯霉素（CAP）吸附行为的影响.荧光区域积分法结果显示,土样胶体的荧光组分以色氨酸类蛋白质、类富里酸和类腐殖酸为主,络氨酸类蛋白质和溶解性微生物代谢物质存在较少.吸附实验结果表明,B3胶体对CAP的吸附率最大（36.25%）,在胶体浓缩液和超滤液中的分配比例最高（1.91）,但其有机碳归一化结合系数最低（3.93）.与天然土壤相比,河湖沉积物胶体的吸附率较高,但其与CAP的结合能力却较低.冗余分析结果表明,胶体对CAP的吸附主要与其芳香度、有色溶解性有机质丰度、溶解性有机碳浓度及分子量有关;此外,胶体的腐殖化程度、芳环上羧基、羰基等官能团的比重及荧光物质中溶解性微生物代谢产物和类腐殖酸对CAP的吸附行为也具有较大影响.